Financials Canadian Natural Resources Limited

Equities

CNQ

CA1363851017

Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

Market Closed - Toronto S.E. Other stock markets 04:00:00 2024-05-31 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
104.7 ^CAD	+0.98%		+0.04%	+20.61%

May. 31	Canadian Natural Resources Ratings Confirmed by DBRS	MT
May. 30	Canada to assess toxicity of compound found in oil sands tailings	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	49,743	36,129	62,917	83,238	94,051	111,831	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	70,096	57,093	76,558	93,272	103,448	122,004	121,777	120,719
P/E ratio	9.25 x	-82.7 x	8.27 x	7.9 x	11.6 x	15.1 x	11.8 x	11.3 x
Yield	3.57%	5.56%	3.74%	6.12%	4.32%	4%	4.14%	4.44%
Capitalization / Revenue	2.17 x	2.14 x	2.09 x	1.97 x	2.61 x	3.14 x	2.99 x	3.05 x
EV / Revenue	3.06 x	3.38 x	2.55 x	2.21 x	2.88 x	3.42 x	3.25 x	3.3 x
EV / EBITDA	6.17 x	10.3 x	4.86 x	4.22 x	6.13 x	7.14 x	6.37 x	6.39 x
EV / FCF	11.2 x	24.6 x	7.67 x	6.36 x	9.94 x	13.6 x	12 x	12.8 x
FCF Yield	8.92%	4.06%	13%	15.7%	10.1%	7.37%	8.31%	7.84%
Price to Book	1.42 x	1.12 x	1.69 x	2.17 x	2.34 x	2.76 x	2.67 x	2.6 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,184,356	1,181,058	1,177,118	1,107,031	1,083,415	1,068,104	-	-
Reference price ²	42.00	30.59	53.45	75.19	86.81	104.7	104.7	104.7
Announcement Date	3/5/20	3/4/21	3/3/22	3/2/23	2/29/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	22,871	16,893	30,057	42,298	35,968	35,655	37,454	36,632
EBITDA ¹	11,361	5,519	15,750	22,113	16,877	17,077	19,104	18,890
EBIT ¹	5,815	-527	10,026	14,760	10,464	11,381	12,868	11,428
Operating Margin	25.43%	-3.12%	33.36%	34.9%	29.09%	31.92%	34.36%	31.2%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	4,956	-873	9,911	13,704	10,165	9,758	11,410	11,552
Net income ¹	5,416	-435	7,664	10,937	8,233	7,365	9,399	8,591
Net margin	23.68%	-2.58%	25.5%	25.86%	22.89%	20.66%	25.09%	23.45%
EPS ²	4.540	-0.3700	6.460	9.520	7.470	6.942	8.840	9.232
Free Cash Flow ¹	6,254	2,320	9,985	14,655	10,409	8,986	10,120	9,466
FCF margin	27.34%	13.73%	33.22%	34.65%	28.94%	25.2%	27.02%	25.84%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	55.05%	42.04%	63.4%	66.27%	61.68%	52.62%	52.97%	50.11%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	115.47%	-	130.28%	133.99%	126.43%	122.01%	107.67%	110.19%
Dividend per Share ²	1.500	1.700	2.000	4.600	3.750	4.193	4.337	4.645
Announcement Date	3/5/20	3/4/21	3/3/22	3/2/23	2/29/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	9,213	10,677	11,475	10,457	9,689	8,630	7,890	9,895	9,553	8,244	8,590	9,371	9,188	9,046	9,374
EBITDA ¹	5,136	6,007	6,396	6,130	4,270	3,868	3,069	5,243	4,881	3,286	4,065	4,812	5,231	4,487	4,696
EBIT ¹	3,663	4,600	5,033	4,676	1,141	2,450	1,672	3,706	2,820	1,753	2,693	3,280	3,165	-	-
Operating Margin	39.76%	43.08%	43.86%	44.72%	11.78%	28.39%	21.19%	37.45%	29.52%	21.26%	31.35%	35%	34.45%	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	3,410	4,077	4,532	3,765	1,330	2,288	1,772	3,147	2,958	1,408	2,330	2,845	2,598	2,514	2,837
Net income ¹	2,534	3,101	3,502	2,814	1,520	1,799	1,463	2,344	2,627	987	1,743	2,111	1,888	1,861	2,105
Net margin	27.5%	29.04%	30.52%	26.91%	15.69%	20.85%	18.54%	23.69%	27.5%	11.97%	20.29%	22.53%	20.55%	20.58%	22.45%
EPS ²	2.140	2.630	3.000	2.490	1.360	1.620	1.320	2.130	2.410	0.9100	1.688	2.109	1.993	1.975	2.182
Dividend per Share ²	0.5900	0.7500	0.7500	2.250	0.8500	0.9000	0.9000	0.9000	1.050	-	1.050	1.050	1.070	1.067	1.067
Announcement Date	3/3/22	5/5/22	8/4/22	11/3/22	3/2/23	5/4/23	8/3/23	11/2/23	2/29/24	5/2/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	20,353	20,964	13,641	10,034	9,397	10,173	9,946	8,888
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.791 x	3.799 x	0.8661 x	0.4538 x	0.5568 x	0.5957 x	0.5206 x	0.4705 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	6,254	2,320	9,985	14,655	10,409	8,986	10,120	9,466
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	16.2%	-1.29%	22.1%	28.6%	21.1%	18.9%	23.3%	23.2%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	7.24%	-0.57%	9.77%	14.3%	10.8%	10.5%	13.2%	-
Assets ¹	74,840	76,698	78,469	76,403	76,048	69,931	71,288	-
Book Value Per Share ²	29.50	27.40	31.60	34.60	37.10	37.90	39.30	40.30
Cash Flow per Share ²	8.610	4.130	11.40	17.20	13.90	13.80	15.40	15.70
Capex ¹	3,608	2,560	4,493	5,103	4,865	5,584	5,484	4,975
Capex / Sales	15.78%	15.15%	14.95%	12.06%	13.53%	15.66%	14.64%	13.58%
Announcement Date	3/5/20	3/4/21	3/3/22	3/2/23	2/29/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Canadian Natural Resources Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

104.7 CAD

Average target price

113.2 CAD

Spread / Average Target

+8.17%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

	1st Jan change	Capi.
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED	+20.61%	81.97B
CHEVRON CORPORATION	+8.86%	299B
CONOCOPHILLIPS	+0.34%	136B
CNOOC LIMITED	+60.77%	131B
EOG RESOURCES, INC.	+2.98%	71.58B
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION	+4.67%	55.41B
HESS CORPORATION	+6.90%	47.32B
DIAMONDBACK ENERGY, INC.	+28.49%	35.54B
WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTD	-10.82%	34.92B
DEVON ENERGY CORPORATION	+8.32%	31.05B

Other Oil & Gas Exploration and Production